Real votes in real ballot boxes

1.00.46pm UTC (GMT +0000) Wed 23rd Aug 2006

There have been five local council by-elections in August of which the Liberal Democrats have won four, three of which were gains. After a bad July Poll for ICM, the Liberal Democrats have bounced back with 22% in the latest (August) ICM/Guardian Poll. Almost all the addition support has come from Labour. Labour's rating of 31% is a 19 year low for the party and the second lowest rating since the Guardian started this polling in 1984!

The polls have been quite volatile over the last few months, Labour had a good July for example at 35% but only 32% in June - which begs the question was July's Poll a rouge poll? What can be seen however looking at the longer trend Labour is losing supporting and both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives are gaining supporting.

Other questions asked were about terrorism and the UK's safety. Only 1% of voters believe the government's foreign policy has made Britain safer, 72% of the public (including 65% of Labour voters) think government policy has made Britain more of a target for terrorists. The poll also shows voters do not believe the government is giving an honest account of the threat facing Britain. Only 20% (26% of Labour voters) say they think the government is telling the truth about the threat, while 21% of voters think the government has actively exaggerated the danger.

Interestingly there have been five local council by-elections in August of which the Liberal Democrats have won four, three of which were gains. Thats real votes in real ballot boxes though - not as interesting as polls to the national media!